The Economy Outlook for 2025

Posted on November 17, 2024

The economy outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with projections indicating a slowdown in growth, but avoiding a recession. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts economic growth to slow down, then pick up, with real GDP increasing by 2.4% in 2025.

This growth is driven by easing monetary policy, which is expected to boost job creation and consumer spending.

Key Trends and Projections

Economic Growth: Slows down in 2023, accelerates in 2024, and reaches 2.4% in 2025.

Unemployment: Increases to 4.7% by the end of 2024, then decreases to 4.5% in 2025.

Inflation: Gradually declines to 2.2% in 2025, driven by softening labor markets and decreasing home prices.

Interest Rates: Decrease to 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, supporting household spending and job growth ¹

Globally, the economy is expected to expand by 2.6% year-on-year on average over the next five years, driven by emerging markets and developing economies.